The European Odyssey: Achieving Strategic Autonomy Through a Federal Metamorphosis
Antonio Sorbino, YSC Fellow 2024
The advent of the war in Ukraine marked a decisive turning point in the global landscape, acting as a catalyst for the geopolitical awakening of the European Union. All of this contributed to the return of the Westphalian logic of power on the international chessboard, profoundly influencing the European Weltanschauung. In this context of international disorder, where multilateralism is being questioned and nationalist mythologies are resurgent, we are witnessing a process of fragmentation reminiscent of Kupchan's thesis of the “no one’s world” (Kupchan, 2012). According to the latter, the current era is characterized by the absence of any single nation or alliance having ultimate control, rendering the world a no-man's land. Therefore, in this land marked by changes and uncertainties, the EU is confronted with the complex dynamics of the "interregnum" (Le Grand Continent, 2022), a critical transition period characterised by a power vacuum. The absence of a predominant authority creates fertile ground for ambitions, such as those expressed by Putin, that can quickly destabilize the fragile global balance.
This article explores how a federal metamorphosis could enable the EU to assert itself as an autonomous geopolitical power, strengthening its capacity to act and overcoming its intergovernmental fragmentations. An improved federal architecture would allow the Union to pursue a cohesive and coherent foreign and security policy, avoiding intergovernmental paralysis linked to vetoes and unanimity. In this way, through a transformation of governance, the EU could achieve the goal of strategic autonomy. In the era of the “interregnum”, marked by global uncertainty, the federal metamorphosis becomes crucial for sculpting a future in which a united and strategically autonomous Europe can resiliently face emerging global challenges.
(c) Viviane M. on Pixabay
Rethinking the EU's Current Structure
In this respect, the European odyssey towards a more independent future needs a change of course in order to navigate the turbulent currents of the international system. In particular, the defence of the European future cannot depend on the electoral idiosyncrasies of the American system, which, with its changes in administration, can lead to fluctuating policies and uncertain engagement with traditional allies (Lippert et al., 2019). In a fragmented world with the US unable to ensure a global balance, the EU needs to review its structure to no longer be the free-rider of a highly polarised titan. From an economic union created to ensure peace and combat power politics, the recent geopolitical developments have highlighted the need for the EU to learn the language of power, thus pushing for a strengthening of its hard power, not only economically, but also militarily (Borrell, 2020).
Indeed, the conflict in Ukraine has prompted an existential rethinking of European identity. The EU, traditionally viewed as an “economic leviathan”, is now being driven to reshape its nature to emerge as a security actor. To do this, the EU needs to reform itself to achieve the goal of strategic autonomy, intended as the EU's ability to act without relying on support from other countries in strategically important areas. This narrative of European progress is essentially a framework for taking decisions for the protection of European interests in a coherent and effective manner. Nevertheless, the current institutional set-up, shaped by numerous external crises, would not allow such a development. Indeed, this “emergency” structure has only strengthened national heads of government. The emergencies have enhanced the role of the intergovernmental institutions, on which foreign policy management depends (Fabbrini, 2021). However, this modus operandi is problematic because a European Council that decides based on unanimity increasingly becomes a diplomatic arena where any head of government can veto, thus slowing the response to crises.
These intergovernmental mechanisms contribute to a lack of unity in the EU's foreign and security policy, leading to a fragmented collective action. This fragmentation further complicates the ability to make quick and effective decisions, which are crucial for maintaining a cohesive foreign policy in the fast-evolving international landscape. Despite this, the EU has shown to be reactive to these threats, but it struggles to act dynamically and only ends up intervening when the situation becomes critical. The Union's action in these crises cannot rely on Article 112 to justify its intervention (Buti et al., 2023). What is needed is an approach that allows issues to be addressed before they evolve into fully developed crises, promoting a policy of prevention and action rather than mere reaction.
Federalism for Strategic Cohesion
In light of the intergovernmental shortcomings affecting the strategic cohesion of the European external action, a possible way for the EU to overcome its foreign policy weaknesses and reaffirm its geopolitical actorness is through a federal metamorphosis. Accordingly, prominent European politicians invoke a “gradual and progressive” federalism to strengthen Europe's capacity for unified action to reaffirm the EU's global role (Buti et al., 2023). In this regard, it is crucial that member states synergize both financial and strategic resources. This process should be underpinned by a solid framework of fiscal federalism that allows for efficient and solidarity-based management of the Union's resources (Hinarejos et Schütze, 2023). The instrument of such federalism would be a collective financing mechanism that would enable the financing of crucial transnational projects in defence, research, and technological innovation, which are key elements for greater geopolitical assertiveness of the EU. These factors can then serve as catalysts for greater European integration, thus overcoming the current fragmentation and the differentiated intergovernmental disintegration of the EU (Fabbrini, 2022). By adopting shared policies and pooling military expenditures, the EU could more effectively tackle global challenges while fostering a sense of internal cohesion, thus enhancing the Union's capability to promote a unified vision. Therefore, it would be important to equip the EU with a combination of a stable regulatory framework and adequate budgetary powers, thus achieving a European Defence Union. A central fiscal and military capacity should, therefore, be created.
Enhancing EU Governance
These developments in economic and strategic governance need to be balanced by an equal evolution of political governance through a redistribution of competences between the various European institutions. Indeed, the federal project envisages a centralization of certain policies of state sovereignty, also referred to as core state powers, to the Union and, at the same time, "the devolution of unnecessary supranational/regulatory policies to the control of national authorities and voters" (Fabbrini, p. 40, 2021). This balancing act stems from the need to overcome the intergovernmental "silo mentalities" (Barbé et Morillas, p. 762, 2019) of the Council, which, by claiming to possess exclusive legitimacy in addressing issues of sovereignty, has contributed to the politicization of them, making their management more arduous (Fabbrini, 2021). In this complicated game of balances, the adoption of decision-making mechanisms that allow for greater flexibility and crisis response is crucial. Unanimity hinders the responsiveness of EU foreign policy and the goal of an “ever-closer union”, often resulting in collective silence. In the wake of the proposals of the Conference on the Future of Europe, an alternative is the use of a qualified majority system, thereby improving the efficiency of decision-making within the EU. Qualified majority voting in these areas of high politics would make it possible to overcome vetoes that can paralyze common action. This would not only speed up the EU's response time in the face of external threats, but also strengthen the perception of unity and solidarity among member states. Such a system requires a delicate balance between maintaining national sovereignty and deepening European integration, a task that entails compromises, a shared vision of Europe's future, and, above all, reciprocal trust.
Towards a Federal Union and Europe's Quest for Strategic Autonomy
In order to achieve the goal of strategic autonomy, the European path towards a federal union may represent a solution to current geopolitical developments: indeed, "the federal union should be the answer to the historic change induced by the Russian war" (Fabbrini et al., p. 5, 2023). Such an institutional architecture seeks to harmonize the sovereignty of member states and the management of certain policies at the European level (Fabbrini, 2022). This model, therefore, envisages the division of sovereignty between the member states and a federal centre, organized according to a form of separation of powers, thus allowing for shared management of policies that concern the security and development of the Union. In contrast, other policies, like those linked to the single market, could be better managed at the national level (Fabbrini, 2021).
Federalism should be understood as a means to better address challenges that transcend national borders while promoting democracy and the pluralism of sovereignties within the EU. The federal model aims to reduce centrifugal dynamics among member states concerned about the potential erosion of their sovereign prerogatives by adopting a system of governance that limits the expansionist ambitions of the collective. Therefore, to manage sovereignty issues, this federal matrix system should increase the number of policy areas that fall under the sphere of self-governance and clearly distinguish the institutional entities responsible for policies designated for joint management.
This path towards strategic autonomy through a federal metamorphosis reflects a journey fraught with opportunities and complicated balances, in short an odyssey. This process, although arduous, is essential to transform aspirations of strategic autonomy into tangible realities, especially in a context of international disorder. In this modern odyssey, the EU is tracing a path that is not only political and strategic but also identity-driven. It is a journey not only to safeguard its interests and values but also to contribute to a more stable global order.
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This article was written as part of the YSC Fellowship 2024. For more information on this year’s fellow programme head here.
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