NATO's Conventional Deterrence: Assessing Transatlantic Preparedness for Future Conflict Scenarios
Ben Brücher, YSC Head of Operations & Treasurer
Photo credit: Americahaus (c)
This year’s Young Security Conference discussed Europe's most pressing security concerns, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts and geopolitical shifts. With Western Europe slowly waking up to the challenges towards the international rules-based order represented by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the YSC highlighted the urgent need to reassess and strengthen NATO's deterrence capabilities. The panel discussion focused on the current security landscape in Europe, the challenges posed by emerging threats, and the strategic importance of technological innovation and cooperation within NATO and the EU. The panel's main questions included the adequacy of current defence structures, the role of technological advancements in enhancing NATO’s capabilities, and the need for a unified threat perception and integrating new member states into NATO's strategic framework.
Commander Rachael Gosnell, Professor at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, emphasised the complexity of the current security landscape, comparing it to the 1930s. She highlighted the interconnected nature of global security, stressing that effective deterrence requires a comprehensive and multifaceted approach. She pointed out that deterrence had failed to prevent the return of war to Europe, underscoring the need for NATO to reassess its defence apparatus and enhance its readiness and capabilities.
Ionela Ciolan, Research Officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies. highlighted that since the 1990s Europe has been perceived as an “Island of Peace”. Today, the European Union is starting to build up its security defence pillar and, for the first time in history, has acted as a security actor by providing military assistance and delivering weapons to Ukraine. Ionela also discussed the strategic importance of the Black Sea region. She noted the lack of a unified Black Sea security strategy within NATO and the EU remains a significant vulnerability.
Torben Schütz, Associate Fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, addressed the technological and industrial dimensions of defence, highlighting the challenges posed by the "valley of death" in research and development, and the need for financial institutions to support defence investments. He emphasised that Europe cannot match the US in research expenditure but can leverage its strengths in specific technological areas.
Policy Recommendations
NATO and EU Collaboration: Develop a comprehensive Black Sea security strategy within NATO and the EU to address regional vulnerabilities and ensure coordinated defence efforts.
Private Sector Cooperation: Foster stronger cooperation between NATO member states and the private sector to enhance technological innovation and resilience in cyber and space domains.
Integration of New NATO Members: Promote the integration of new NATO members, such as Sweden and Finland, by enhancing interoperability and adapting command structures to reflect the expanded strategic landscape.
European Defence Commissioner: Establish an EU Commissioner for Defence to streamline defence initiatives and coordinate efforts between member states, focusing on defence industry cooperation and innovation.
Harmonise Defence R&D: Establish dedicated infrastructure for advanced technological development within the EU to bridge the gap between different stages of research and development.
Defence Industry Standards: Create EU-wide standards for defence technology and innovation, ensuring that ethical and governance concerns are addressed without hindering progress in critical areas.
The panel discussions highlighted the challenges that NATO and the EU face in ensuring effective conventional deterrence. The need for comprehensive strategies, technological innovation, and enhanced cooperation among member states runs against some remaining concerns about national sovereignty and resistance to reform by European leaders. Reformers trying to implement the panellists’ valuable ideas for reforms within NATO and the EU must navigate these tensions between collective action and national interests. Still, they will ultimately strengthen Europe’s security and stability amidst evolving global threats.
This policy brief is part of our series on the panels of the #YSC2024. To learn more about our anniversary conference click here.
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