NATO's Conventional Deterrence: Assessing Transatlantic Preparedness for Future Conflict Scenarios

Public Session

06:00 - 07:30 pm, 25th May 2024

European capitals were jolted into quick refutations of Emanuel Macron’s statement on February 26th, in which he did not rule out the prospect of sending Western troops to Ukraine following a meeting of major European countries on aid to the embattled nation. Yet, the German Defense Minister, the Swedish commander-in-chief, and the head of the British Army have told their respective countrymen and -women that they might have to fight Russia in the future. While opinions range from three to eight years, most agree Russia will be able to reconstitute its armed forces from the losses incurred in Ukraine within a decade. How well prepared is Europe for such a scenario?

On the one hand, the alliance is looking stronger than ever: Germany aims to deploy a brigade by 2027, stationed in Lithuania, Poland proclaimed to build the most powerful land forces of Europe, and with Finland and Sweden's accession into the alliance, two capable militaries just joined the ranks of NATO’s conventional deterrence. Yet, one only needs to look across the Atlantic to realise the alliance is not as good a shape as the developments mentioned above might suggest. No matter the outcome of the 2024 elections, it is no longer clear how committed the United States will still be to upholding European security. And if we are to believe recent statements by Donald Trump, Russia might even be encouraged “to do whatever the hell they want” to any European NATO member not spending enough on defence. How can the alliance maintain and increase its conventional deterrence capabilities in the face of divergent national policies and defence industries and the uncertainty of future US commitments?

When discussing potential conflict with Russia, NATO planners consider scenarios ranging from full-scale invasions to smaller territorial occupations to difficult-to-attribute grey-zone activities. Each scenario requires distinct military and non-military capabilities, which are further complicated by varying threat perceptions and persisting uncertainties regarding the alignment between national policies among NATO members and the capability development of different allies. What are the potential scenarios of a confrontation between Russia and NATO on the ground? What are and should be NATO’s conventional deterrence priorities?

Moderated by Ben Bruecher

Ben has completed a BA and MA in History at the Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich and an additional MA at the Department of War Studies at King’s College London. Throughout his academic journey, Ben’s research focused on the intricacies of state of exception and extra-legal necessity concepts in International Humanitarian Law and Human Rights.

Ben previously worked as a research associate at the University of the Bundeswehr Munich, where he led seminars on the historical transformations of wars and conflicts and developed a multidisciplinary workshop on comparative perspectives on states of emergencies. Now, he is a project leader at the Ax:son Johnson Institute for Statecraft and Diplomacy.

At the Young Security Conference, he is the Head of Operations and Treasurer.

Speakers

  • Commander Rachael Gosnell

    Military Professor in Strategic Security Studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies

    Commander Rachael Gosnell joined the Marshall Center as a Military Professor in June 2023. She serves in the Strategic Studies Department and is the Program Manager for the European Security Seminar – North (ESS-N). CDR Gosnell is a European Foreign Area Officer and Navy Strategist, with academic and operational expertise in maritime security, strategy, and the High North region.

    As a Surface Warfare Officer, she served onboard USS SHILOH (CG-67), U.S.S. HARRY S. TRUMAN (CVN-75), and as the Weapons Officer and Combat Systems Officer onboard U.S.S. STOCKDALE (DDG 106).

    While ashore, CDR Gosnell was stationed at Naval Support Activity La Maddalena, Italy and at the Pentagon, where she served in OPNAV 513 Strategy and Policy and as Speechwriter for the 30th Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Greenert. She taught in the Political Science Department at the U.S. Naval Academy, where she served on the Admissions Board and as the Humanities/Social Sciences Division Senior Academic Adviser, and was elected to the Faculty Senate.

    As a European Foreign Affairs Officer, CDR Gosnell served as a country desk officer at Commander Naval Forces Europe in Naples, Italy before being selected by Adm. Foggo (and subsequently Admiral Burke) to serve as Speechwriter and in the Commander’s Action Group for the Commander, Naval Forces Europe – Africa and Commander, Allied Joint Force Command Naples. She was selected as the Assistant Naval Attaché, U.S. Embassy Moscow and completed Russian language training.

    CDR Gosnell has published numerous articles examining Arctic security and has presented at conferences in the U.S., Iceland, Germany, Italy, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark.

    CDR Gosnell received a Meritorious Service Medal from the Secretary of the Navy for her work on the 2021 Department of the Navy Arctic Blueprint. Other awards include the Defense Meritorious Service Medal, Meritorious Service Medal (2), Joint Commendation Medal, Navy Commendation Medal (4), Navy Achievement Medal (2), Top Gunner Award, Navy League Award, and various campaign and unit awards. She served on the U.S. Naval Institute Editorial Board for six years, where she was elected both Chairman and Vice-Chairman of the Board.

  • Dr Ionela Ciolan

    Research Officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies

    Dr. Ionela Maria Ciolan is a Research Officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, focusing on European Foreign Policy, Security and Defence. Her areas of interest and expertise include European Security and Defence Policy, European Foreign Policy, NATO, Black Sea security, Arctic security, transatlantic relations, and EU relations with Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova.

    In addition, Ionela is a 2023-2024 Re.Think CEE Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and part of the 2023 Transatlantic Security Initiative of the International Republican Institute. Previously, she worked as a security and defence researcher at the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. Prior to that, she was a research fellow at the European Policy Centre (EPC) in Brussels and a James S. Denton Transatlantic Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) in Washington. She gained extensive international policy expertise as a Fulbright Scholar at the University of California-Berkeley, and through her work at the European Parliament, the Centre for EU-Russia Studies at the University of Tartu, and the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration in Romania.

    Ionela holds a PhD from the National University of Political Studies and Public Administration (Romania) on the dynamics of the Eastern Neighbourhood between the EU’s multilateral values and Russia’s great power politics (with a focus on Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia). Her policy research has been published by CEPA, EPC, GLOBSEC and the European Defence Agency. Her work has been quoted in several international media.

    Ionela is an alumna of the Manfred Wörner Seminar of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Germany (2022), the GLOBSEC Young Leaders Forum (2022), and the OSCE and UN Office for Disarmament Affairs Scholarship for Peace and Security (2019). She was a New Security Leader of the Warsaw Security Forum (2018) and a Professional Fellow of the US Department of State (2015).

  • Torben Schütz

    Associate Fellow at the DGAP Center for Security and Defense

    Torben Schütz is an associate fellow in DGAP’s Center for Security and Defense. He is also a PhD candidate at Helmut Schmidt University/University of the Federal Armed Forces Hamburg where he works as a research fellow at the Defense AI Observatory. His research and work focus on German and European security policy, the future of conflict, military capabilities, military technology and innovation, and arms industry issues. Between 2013 and 2016, Schütz worked in the International Security Division of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin. He holds an master’s degree in political science from Leibniz Universität Hannover.